A research meteorologist would say: The deterministic computer models incorrectly placed the frontal boundary as of 12 Zulu time.
A Rapper would say: Yo, this front slowed it's role.
The Kool Aid Man would say: Oh yaaaaaa!
No matter how you say it, the front has slowed down and this is good news for the forecast. As of yesterday the computer models had the cold front into the western mountains of Maine by now. Its actual current position? Upstate New York. This slower movement will hold the showers off until the afternoon for most spots while allowing some sunshine across southern and coastal Maine.
I'm going to break it into regions because it's impossible otherwise:
Southern Maine/Southern Midcoast/Central Maine: Morning sunshine makes for a nice start to the day. Clouds will increase by around 1 PM however as the cold front approaches. Showers will begin breaking out around 4 PM with the front exiting to the east by 8 PM. Temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Northern Midcoast/Downeast: Early morning showers will give way to some sunny breaks, but not the consistent sunshine southern Maine will see. Back to mostly cloudy by 3 PM and then showers arrive around 5 PM and linger until 11 PM over the most eastern points.
Western Maine/Mountains: With the cold front nearby showers will be more of an all day event here. Look for mostly cloudy conditions and showers popping up any time after 10 AM really. The good news is that the last line of shower activity should push east of the region by dinner time. (Normal dinner time, not old person dinner time)
Tonight: As I mentioned in the showers will continue through early evening over southern Maine and until around midnight over northern and Downeast Maine. After the showers pass look for rapid clearing and, as a result, rapid temperature drop. Lows should end up in the 40s by the early morning under mostly clear skies.
Sunday will look better in the morning than it will at night (it's like the opposite of most bad dating decisions). Morning sunshine will be nearly statewide as the cold front remains offshore. Unfortunately the front didn't go THAT far east, so clouds will start streaming back into the state from southwest to northeast by around noon, creating a cloudy afternoon. Because of the movement of the cloud deck, northern Maine and Downeast may actually see a pretty nice day as they won't cloud up until late.
A low pressure wave will develop along the stalled out cold front so light rain is likely along the coastline on Sunday night as it moves through the Gulf of Maine. A FEW showers could actually cross into York County during the day light hours on Sunday but more likely it will hold off until dark (which isn't that late anymore). If you are located any more than 50-60 miles from the ocean you should remain dry through the evening as the precipitation stays east.
The light rain will wrap up super early on Monday morning and Columbus Day actually looks pretty good. Mostly sunny skies will take over and make for a bright but cool day. How cool? Highs in the 50s and overnight lows below freezing in spots by Monday evening.
That cooler air stays with us for Tuesday before we modify a bit on Wednesday.
That last gasp of summer everyone keeps waiting for? I think Fall just suffocated it with a pillow.
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