Mild Monday/Showery Tuesday but overall settled

3:34 PM, Nov 11, 2012   |    comments
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No doubt there is more sun across southern and central Maine than I forecasted last night...but I can live with that. (There was a recent article in the NY Times in which interviewed meteorologists admitted they tend to "over-forecast" on purpose. Why? If they called for showers and it turned out to be a nice one complained. HOWEVER, if they called for a sunny day and showers popped up...well, cue the hate mail. I always try to be as accurate as possible so you can plan around my forecast, but there's something to that whole mentality.) The brighter skies are due to the fact that the warm frontal boundary pushed just a little bit further north today...bringing the low level cloud cover with it. In fact, if you are reading this from the Midcoast on north, you have no idea why I'm even talking about's cloudy there.

Tonight: Partly cloudy over southern and central Maine but mostly cloudy north of Bangor. Either way it won't be all that cold as the warm front pushes into Canada and the mild air starts really flowing in. This air mass change should keep much of the state in the 40s for overnight lows with the exception of western Maine and the mountains; they will drop into the 30s.

Monday: With the warm front way up in Canada, it will be warm...the real question is HOW warm. I think the key will be how much sunshine southern Maine ends up with (Congratulations Carson for that nugget of wisdom. Sun=Warm? Wow). MOST of the state will be mostly sunny with no real forcing mechanism for clouds in place but I'm concerned about the coastline getting socked in with low level cloud cover. A few computer models are hinting that the onshore wind (Southeast) will be enough to drag moisture into the land and develop mostly cloudy skies from the coastline to about 30 miles inland. (Computer models tend to hint at small scale things like this, but never really commit). So, all that being said, I'm going to go mostly cloudy along the coastline with temperatures maxing out around 60 F. Meanwhile interior locations will warm up with more sunshine, netting temperatures into the mid 60s.

A cold front will approach by Monday night so showers will break out from west to east after midnight.

The shower activity will continue through the day on Tuesday as the boundary slowly pushes towards the coastline. There's nothing particularly interesting about this feature (#thingspeoplesayaboutme), it's your run of the mill cold expect generally moderate precipitation with a few heavier downpours embedded.

As cold air pulls in behind the front Tuesday night there might be a little mixing with snow and sleet, especially in the mountains. But at that point the moisture will be limited so I don't expect much accumulation.

After that it is SUPER quiet. A huge ridge of high pressure builds in so Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday all look dry and pleasant to me. Temperatures will be a BIT cool, with highs in the mid 40s...but it seems like a reasonable trade off for all the sunshine.

Snow lovers: No hope for at least a week with a very flat, zonal pattern and a bunch of dry air.

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