Good looking Sunday, Messy Monday

7:54 PM, Dec 8, 2012   |    comments
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Paula, an established over-the-top-obsessed-with-Christmas type (and also my wife if you haven't been following along with the class), summed up today's weather very succinctly: "This is NOT good elfing weather." (She refers to anything related to Christmas as"elfing activity"...need I further prove my case in regards to the obsession?)

The point is, unless you legitimately suffer from Chionophobia (google it), most of us would have gladly swapped out our-38F-and-Rainy bundle of precipitation misery for some light snow today.

But alas, it wasn't in the cards. Moving forward...

Tonight: Most of today's rain has now pushed northeastward away from Maine, so most of the state will see a few scattered showers through around midnight followed by rapid clearing through the early morning hours. Over the mountains and far northern Maine (talking Caribou here) there will some light snow developing around 10 PM and continuing until the early morning, leading to some minor accumulation. This light snow is in response to a frontal boundary that is MOSTLY staying in Canada but clipping the aforementioned regions on its way by. Temperatures drop to between 30-35 F

Sunday: High pressure will make a limited engagement appearance in Maine, allowing for a very pleasant day. Look for mostly sunny skies with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40s in most spots. It will be a bit cooler (low 40s) and cloudier in the mountains as a northwest wind creates localized cloud cover.

Sunday Night: Clouds increase rapidly through the first half of the evening as a storm system approaches. Precipitation breaks out between 2 AM and 4 AM across southern and western Maine. Most areas will at least START as snow with temperatures cool enough and evaporative cooling helping to chill borderline spots. The immediate coastline in York County will quickly change over to rain, meanwhile central and northern Maine will just remain cloudy as the precipitation shield slowly works northeastward.

Monday: I think we are looking at a messy morning commute in many spots. The storm itself will be an "inside runner", meaning it tracks well to our west and warm air invades and changes the precipitation over to rain...HOWEVER I think it will take longer to displace the cool air at the surface than the computer models are taking into account. This is a classic "cold air damming" situation in which a ridge of high pressure up in Canada supplies us with cold air at the surface while warmer air invades at the mid levels.

SO, I'm thinking the coastline changes over to plain rain during the morning hours but about 50-60 miles inland is a mixture of snow and sleet straight through 10 AM-11 AM while the mountains remain all snow. Eventually, as the layer of cold air becomes more shallow, freezing rain will begin across the interior and foothills with some ice accretion a real possibility through noon. We get a little break in the action from 1 PM to 3 PM while warm air secretly wins the day, and the second round of precip. arrives by late afternoon/early evening as mainly rain. Snow accumulations could be in the 2-4" range 50-60 miles inland and into the mountains but much of this accumulation will be washed away by the rain.

Tuesday: The storm leaves as some light snow in the early morning but conditions rapidly improve to reveal some sunshine by the afternoon.

Sunny, quiet and a bit cool for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Ok I'm out.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH



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