Nice Tuesday and then ANOTHER storm

3:16 PM, Feb 25, 2013   |    comments
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Sunday was a unique day for hate mail: In the early morning I was fielding "It's raining! Another let down of a storm. You guys are idiots!" emails...but by the afternoon I was receiving "It's snowing WAY more than you forecasted. Another low-ball forecast. You guys are idiots!" emails.

If nothing else, the variety was nice.

(Hey, I get it, I underdid the snow amounts. But there was no support I could find for anything over 10" when I poured over the charts on Sunday morning. And if you think I'm going to forecast a foot of snow on a NORLUN trough after what happened with that feature last time...well, you crazy!)

Rest of today: With high pressure building in look for mostly sunny skies along the coastline with a mixture of sun and clouds further inland. Overall though it will be a pleasant afternoon with temperatures pushing into the upper 30s, even in the mountains.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and quiet. Overnight lows will be colder than last evening, dropping into the teens and low 20s in most spots.

Tuesday: High pressure directly overhead at this point so look for mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer conditions. Highs will likely top 40 F over southern Maine, more like upper 30s elsewhere.

The first half of Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and dry but our next storm system will rapidly approach for Wednesday afternoon.

This is a different setup than we've seen over the past few storms, it's not a true Nor'easter but instead an "occluded low." Basically what that means in this situation is that there will be low pressure systems: One well to our west and the other forming to our south over the ocean. The occluded nature of the system makes the rain/snow issue difficult to nail down along the coastline because temperature profiles are very muddled in a vertically stacked storm like this.

Either way the antecedent (big word!) airmass on Wednesday will be cold enough to support snow at the onset with flakes developing across southern and western Maine by Wednesday afternoon.

The rain/snow line will begin to be a factor on Wednesday evening as the snow really starts picking up. However, any further than say 40 miles inland and it's all snow all the way...and quite a bit. As snow continues through Thursday morning then into Thursday afternoon I expect a widespread area of 12"+ totals by Friday night. Right now that bullseye is painted over western and central Maine and into the mountains.

As far as the coastline goes...I'm just not sure yet. If you had given me a storm track like this normally I'd say we will change to rain. But now that we have some pretty deep snow pack the key will likely be a small scale feature such as the coastal front. If the coastal front pushes onshore we are going to change to rain by Thursday morning, if it doesn't...well we are in the 12"+ boat with everyone else.

We will iron out the details as we get closer. Probably have a snowfall map by tomorrow morning.

I'll be BACK in nerd mode on Twitter for this storm: @KeithCarsonWCSH  

 

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