I'll admit it; about 10 days ago when I saw a big Bermuda High setting up for this week, I got pretty excited. I figured we'd have a strong southwest flow, good east coast ridging, and temperatures pushing into the 70s.
Welp. I am guilty of seeing the forest, but not noticing the huge oak tree right in front of me. (By the way, after extensive debate with a friend, we determined the correct phrase is actually "See the forest FOR the trees." Isn't that shocking?) I read the overall pattern correctly, but failed to take into account the position of a warm front across the Northeast. That warm front will actually set up to our south, blocking what would be a strong and mild southwest flow from the Bermuda High. #WeatherWeenieFail
Today: With high pressure in control look for mostly sunny skies throughout the day. I see a few high, thin clouds lurking over New Hampshire that could turn skies milky for a brief period over southern Maine...but now I'm just being picky and difficult. With overnight lows that stayed in the 40s in many spots, temperatures will rise quickly into the 50s with many spots topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s by this afternoon. (Best chance for 60 F: Sanford, Fryeburg, Lewiston, Portland).
Tonight: After a clear start look for clouds to increase from west to east by late evening. A warm front will be moving into the area and showers will break out after midnight. In the higher terrain these showers will actually be in the form of snow and sleet, but for most of us it will just be rain shower activity. Overnight lows stay in the upper 30s to low 40s as a result of the cloud cover insulation.
Tuesday: Most of us will wake up to showers on Tuesday morning, but the higher terrain and spots north of Millinocket will hang on to a mixture of snow and sleet. A few downpours are possible within the showers, but for the most part the activity looks light. By midday the front will lift to the north so southern and central Maine will begin to clear out, ending up with some sunshine and a pleasant afternoon. No such luck over northern Maine as snow will continue until 3-4 PM and clouds will linger until sunset. Temperatures will vary pretty wildly due to the split in the afternoon forecast, highs will be in the mid 50s over southern Maine but only mid 40s north of Bangor.
As I explained yesterday, with a large scale warm front stalled directly over Maine through the week, there will be periods of shower activity every time a weak disturbance ripples along the boundary.
As such, a round of showers will arrive on Tuesday night, but clear out by late morning on Wednesday allowing a decent Wednesday afternoon.
Yet another wave will impact us on Wednesday night and linger through parts of Thursday, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s for the most part.
A larger coastal low will develop for Friday, which will bring us much heavier and much more consistent rain. I'll watch this as we get closer because it has the potential to put down rainfall amounts in excess of 2".
We should clear out in time to salvage at least 3/4 of our next weekend, with rain exiting on Saturday afternoon.
Big picture though, our pattern remains rather unremarkable. We can't seem to get eastern seaboard ridging strong enough to make it all the way into Maine. So while we may get a few warmer tease days here and there, I don't see any reason to believe we will flip the switch to 60s and 70s any time soon.
Then again I thought we'd hit 70 this week, so what do I know?